The ‘Axis of Upheaval’, a loose coalition forming among Russia, China, Iran, and North Korea in the mid-2020s. Wikimedia Commons.
Axis of Upheaval (Russia, China, North Korea, Iran)
The so-called Axis of Upheaval—Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran—does not function as a formal alliance but as a loose coalition of states that share a common interest: challenging Western influence and disrupting the global order. Whether through weapons transfers, diplomatic backing, or hybrid warfare tactics, these nations coordinate efforts to undermine U.S. and allied interests across Europe, the Middle East, and the Indo-Pacific. While historically divided by competing ambitions, their increasing military cooperation suggests a deepening alignment against Western powers.
History
- Cold War Legacies: Ties between these nations have historical roots, particularly through Soviet-era alliances with China and North Korea and Cold War-era Iranian-Russian ties.
- Post-2014 Russian Shift: Following Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014 and subsequent Western sanctions, Moscow deepened ties with China and Iran.
- U.S. Strategic Pivot (2018–2023): Increased U.S. sanctions, military alliances, and Indo-Pacific strategies pushed these states to strengthen mutual cooperation in response to perceived containment efforts.
- Ukraine War (2022-Present): Russia’s invasion of Ukraine accelerated its reliance on China, North Korea, and Iran for military supplies, economic trade, and diplomatic support.
Major Characteristics, Initiatives, and Important Facts
Military and Security Cooperation:
- Russia-China Defense Collaboration: Joint military exercises, arms sales, and naval drills in the Pacific.
- Iran-Russia Drone and Missile Cooperation: Tehran supplies drones and missile components to Russia for its war in Ukraine.
- North Korea-Russia Arms Trade/Coalition Warfare: Pyongyang provides artillery shells and ballistic missiles to Moscow, strengthening ties between authoritarian regimes. In 2024, Pyongyang dispatched tens of thousands of North Korean soldiers to help Russia push Ukraine out of its territorial borders.
- China-North Korea Military Ties: Continued backing from Beijing as North Korea expands its missile and nuclear programs.
Economic and Energy Partnerships:
- China and Russia Energy Deals: Russia has rerouted oil and gas exports to China following European sanctions.
- Iran-China 25-Year Agreement: A strategic partnership including military and infrastructure investments.
- Russia-Iran Alternative Banking Mechanisms: New financial channels to bypass U.S. sanctions.
- North Korea’s Economic Dependence on China: Beijing remains Pyongyang’s largest trade partner and economic lifeline.
Geopolitical and Strategic Implications:
- Challenging U.S.-Led Order: Promotes an alternative to the Western-led global system through organizations like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) and BRICS+.
- Regional Destabilization: Support for proxy conflicts in the Middle East, Ukraine, and the Indo-Pacific.
- Expansion of Military Footprint: Increased naval presence in contested waters such as the South China Sea, Taiwan Strait, and the Arctic.
- Hybrid Warfare & Cyber Operations: Enhanced cyber espionage, disinformation campaigns, and election interference tactics.
Further Reading
Russia-China Military Cooperation
Iranian Arms Supplies to Russia
North Korea’s Role in Russia’s War Effort
“Axis of Upheaval.” Wikipedia.
“Axis of Upheaval,” Center for New American Security.
Simón, “The Trump Administration vs. The ‘Axis of Upheaval?’” War on the Rocks.
“Are America’s Four Main Adversaries Really in Cahoots?” Vox.
“Conversation on Adversarial Alignment,” Munich Security Conference, February 15, 2025.